Toronto's Condo Supply Is About to Drop 85%. Here's What It Means for Buyers.

You've probably seen the headlines about Toronto's condo oversupply. Here's the part that's getting less attention: the oversupply is temporary, and the supply cliff behind it isn't.

The countdown

Urbanation's latest report (Q3 2026) shows how quickly new condo completions across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area are set to fall:

| Year | New condo completions (GTHA) | |---|---| | 2025 | 29,077 | | 2026 | ~20,900 | | 2027 | ~15,800 | | 2028 | ~12,100 | | 2029 | ~4,200 |

2026 to 2029 are forecasts.

That's a drop of roughly 85% in four years.

Why it's happening

Construction starts this year are 82% below the 10-year average, and units under construction are at their lowest level since 2012. A new tower takes four to five years to build, so nothing started today can fill the gap before the end of the decade.

Early signs are already showing

• Completed, unsold inventory fell in Q3 for the first time in four years.
• In the former City of Toronto, where new completions fell 30% over the past year, resale prices dipped just 2.8%, compared with 9.3% in the 905.

The core, where new supply is already thinning, is holding its value best.

The honest take

There's still inventory to work through, and prices are still soft in many areas, so I'm not expecting prices to jump next month. But if you're buying a home to live in for five years or more, or investing for the long haul, you're buying into a market where new supply is about to dry up.

Today's deals exist because of the oversupply. By 2029, it's gone.

The HST rebate window is open now

Ontario's enhanced HST rebate can save buyers of new homes up to $130,000, whether you're moving in or renting the home out. To qualify, you need to sign with the builder by March 31, 2027.

If you're buying as an investor, the unit also has to be completed by December 31, 2029. Completed, never-lived-in units are the surest way to meet that deadline. Resale homes don't qualify, and eligibility depends on your situation, so let's confirm yours before you count on it.

Brand-new and move-in ready

Builders have finished units they're ready to sell, and many are now listed on the open market. They're brand new, never lived in, and ready to move into or rent out right away. Because they're bought from the builder, many may also qualify for the enhanced HST rebate.

Want to see your numbers?

Whether you're a first-time buyer, upsizing for your family or adding to your portfolio, I'm happy to put together a free side-by-side of new versus resale for the area you're considering, along with my current list of brand-new, move-in-ready condos.

Source: Urbanation Q3 2026 Condominium Market Survey. HST rebate details are based on the rules as announced by the Government of Ontario; confirm your eligibility before relying on it.